January 27, 2004

Thoughts on the Prime Primary, Primarily

The New Hampshire results are not so surprising, although I expected about four or five of Kerry's percentage points to belong to Dean. It's obviously good news for Kerry, but I wouldn't say his nomination is inevitable yet. As Eric Alterman points out, the New Hampshire primary has not been particularly well predictive of the nominee in recent years.

The most important question for me (and many other Democrats) is which candidate is most likely to beat Bush. I think most of the "unelectable" attributes of Dean also apply to Kerry: northeastern, rich, liberal, etc. Kerry does have his war record, but it's not clear to me how much this really matters. Bush's history of not showing up for his National Guard duties didn't seem to hurt him much in 2000, after all. My sense is that electability comes down to style rather than substance, which keeps leading me to the conclusion that Edwards is the guy. (This is not an official endorsement.)

Anyway, the primaries should continue to be interesting at least through next week; I believe Edwards is favored in South Carolina, and Missouri is up for grabs. Wouldn't it be nice if the primaries were still interesting five weeks from now, when California's rolls around... Posted by Arcane Gazebo at January 27, 2004 9:06 PM | Tags:
Comments



This won't be an actual factor in my voting, because that would be absurd, but Kerry's face creeps me out. He has a science fiction-looking face. I don't know. I could see him running with Edwards as his VP if only to keep from scaring the babies that he plans to kiss...

Posted by: Tracy Manford | January 28, 2004 6:28 AM



One observer who speculates that CA will count- will in fact be pivotal- is Safire in today's Times. It is worth a look.

Posted by: Jeremiah Spur | January 28, 2004 1:27 PM

And now, a moment of shallowness.

At the risk of spreading anti-Democratic memes, I will pass on last night's FARK.com headline: Lurch projected to beat No Neck, 39 percent to 24 percent, in NH primary

And while we're on the subject, there's this classic site...

Posted by: Arcane Gazebo | January 28, 2004 3:36 PM

Re: And now, a moment of shallowness.

That's it! Lurch! I could NOT figure out who Kerry reminded me of until now. Lindsay and I were discussing it last night, now I have to email her...

Posted by: Tracy Manford | January 29, 2004 6:16 AM
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